Will Phoenix Rising FC and the Tampa Bay Rowdies square off in the USL Championship Final in November? The current postseason projections have them on a collision course with a quarter of the season to go. | Photo courtesy Matt May / Tampa Bay Rowdies
This Wednesday night will mark the start of the final quarter of the 2021 USL Championship regular season, and that means the postseason is just around the corner for the 16 teams that make the field. As we’ve done twice previously this season at the one-quarter and halfway marks, we’re revisiting the projections made by fivethirtyeight.com and see how each club’s playoff stock had risen or fallen since we last checked in on August 19.
Here’s our latest look at the division-by-division changes, and who the favorites are now to claim the USL Championship Final at the end of the season to see which clubs the projections are buying or selling as contenders.
Team | Preseason Playoff Odds | Quarter-Season Odds | Mid-Season Odds | Current Playoff Odds | +/- | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
TBR
Tampa Bay Rowdies |
90% | 97% | 98% | >99% | +1% |
2 |
PIT
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC PIT |
79% | 86% | 97% | >99% | +2% |
3 |
MIA
The Miami FC |
67% | 45% | 74% | 98% | +24% |
4 |
CLT
Charlotte Independence |
68% | 84% | 62% | 94% | +32% |
5 |
CHS
Charleston Battery |
52% | 34% | 32% | 4% | -28% |
6 |
HFD
Hartford Athletic |
23% | 43% | 35% | 4% | -31% |
7 |
NY
New York Red Bulls II |
12% | 4% | 1% | <1% | -1% |
8 |
LDN
Loudoun United FC |
8% | 6% | <1% | <1% | 0% |
The Tampa Bay Rowdies and Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC are both locks to advance to the playoffs, with Tampa Bay’s record-setting eight-game shutout streak making it now a 97 percent favorite to win the division according to fivethirtyeight.com.
The big shakeout has come in the middle of the standings, however, with Miami FC’s nine-game undefeated run and the more recent three-game winning streak put together by the Charlotte Independence putting both the Charleston Battery and Hartford Athletic into a significant deficit. There’s still time for both sides, but they might have to go on big runs during the final six weeks of the season to get back into contention.
Team | Preseason Playoff Odds | Quarter-Season Odds | Mid-Season Odds | Current Playoff Offs | +/- | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
LOU
Louisville City FC |
86% | 97% | >99% | >99% | 0 |
2 |
BHM
Birmingham Legion FC |
70% | 92% | 96% | >99% | +3% |
3 |
TUL
FC Tulsa |
57% | 54% | 55% | 97% | +42% |
4 |
MEM
Memphis 901 FC |
42% | 42% | 47% | 42% | -5% |
5 |
IND
Indy Eleven |
79% | 76% | 54% | 30% | -24% |
6 |
OKC
OKC Energy FC |
34% | 15% | 26% | 21% | -5% |
7 |
ATL
Atlanta United 2 |
14% | 20% | 21% | 10% | -11% |
8 |
SKC
Sporting KC II |
17% | 5% | 3% | <1% | -2% |
We already knew Louisville City FC was looking like a lock to make its seventh consecutive postseason trip, and the two-time Championship Title-winner is also a 91 percent chance to claim the division title as well. The big move in the past quarter has come from FC Tulsa, both due to its own excellent form, and also to the uncertainty that lies below it.
While the odds have moved in favor of Memphis 901 FC and its games in hand in the projections, it still feels like this is up for grabs, even for an Atlanta United 2 side that has punched above its projections most of the year. The twists and turns down the stretch on who takes fourth place are going to be compelling viewing for fans and neutrals alike.
Team | Preseason Playoff Odds | Quarter-Season Odds | Mid-Season Odds | Current Playoff Odds | +/- | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
ELP
El Paso Locomotive FC |
73% | 83% | >99% | >99% | 0 |
2 |
SA
San Antonio FC |
91% | 67% | 73% | 95% | +22% |
3 |
COS
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC |
50% | 63% | 61% | 90% | +29% |
4 |
ATX
Austin Bold FC |
56% | 44% | 39% | 56% | +17% |
5 |
NM
New Mexico United |
72% | 75% | 54% | 38% | -16% |
2 |
RGV
Rio Grande Valley FC |
30% | 62% | 73% | 20% | -53% |
7 |
SLC
Real Monarchs SLC |
29% | 7% | 1% | <1% | 0 |
There’s no change at the top with El Paso Locomotive FC still well out in front as a 89 percent chance to finish on top of the Mountain Division, and it has now been joined in looking nailed on for a playoff place by San Antonio FC and Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC who now both comfortably in second and third place.
The biggest drop of the quarter has come from Rio Grande Valley FC, which is now third-favorite to take fourth place after its eight-game winless streak. Instead, Austin Bold FC is now slightly better than a coin-flip to advance ahead of New Mexico United after three consecutive victories to start the rein of new Head Coach Ryan Thompson. There’s still a long way to go here, though, before the final spot is settled.
Team | Preseason Playoff Odds | Quarter-Season Odds | Mid-Season Odds | Current Playoff Odds | +/- | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
PHX
Phoenix Rising FC |
96% | 99% | >99% | >99% | 0 |
2 |
SD
San Diego Loyal |
71% | 69% | 82% | 97% | +15% |
3 |
OC
Orange County SC |
86% | 87% | 82% | 90% | 8% |
5 |
TAC
Tacoma Defiance |
21% | 18% | 40% | 48% | +8% |
5 |
SAC
Sacramento Republic FC |
83% | 66% | 57% | 36% | -21% |
6 |
OAK
Oakland Roots SC |
20% | 34% | 3% | 16% | +13% |
7 |
LA
LA Galaxy II |
11% | 13% | 16% | 14% | -2% |
8 |
LV
Las Vegas Lights FC |
13% | 13% | 20% | <1% | -19% |
Phoenix is exactly where it was at the midway point, sitting with a 99 percent chance to win the division, and can in fact be the first team to clinch a playoff berth this season before it next takes the field on Saturday night with its Magic Number at 2 going into the week. Should Oakland Roots SC fail to take victory against San Diego Loyal SC at home in midweek, it would no longer be able to catch Phoenix on 53 points, sealing Rising FC’s playoff spot thanks to its already-earned head-to-head tiebreakers with Sacramento Republic FC and the LA Galaxy II.
Sacramento is also in action in midweek as it visits the Tacoma Defiance in what looks like a must-win game at Cheney Stadium after its on-field struggles have now manifested in the projections. The race for fourth place, as in the Central and Mountain Divisions, is going to be one to follow closely here.
Team | Preseason Title Odds | Quarter-Season Odds | Mid-Season Odds | Current Playoff Odds | +/- | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
TBR
Tampa Bay Rowdies |
10% | 11% | 10% | 22% | +12% |
2 |
PHX
Phoenix Rising FC |
18% | 21% | 24% | 21% | -3% |
3 |
LOU
Louisville City FC |
8% | 13% | 15% | 14% | -1% |
4 |
ELP
El Paso Locomotive FC |
4% | 5% | 10% | 11% | +1% |
5 |
PIT
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC PIT |
5% | 6% | 8% | 5% | -3% |
6 |
SA
San Antonio FC |
9% | 4% | 4% | 5% | +1% |
7 |
MIA
The Miami FC |
3% | 1% | 2% | 3% | +1% |
8 |
BHM
Birmingham Legion FC |
4% | 5% | 4% | 3% | -1% |
9 |
COS
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC |
1% | 3% | 2% | 3% | +1% |
10 |
CLT
Charlotte Independence |
3% | 4% | 2% | 3% | +1% |
11 |
SD
San Diego Loyal |
3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 0 |
12 |
OC
Orange County SC |
7% | 5% | 3% | 2% | -1% |
13 |
TUL
FC Tulsa |
2% | 1% | <1% | 1% | +1% |
14 |
NM
New Mexico United |
3% | 4% | 2% | 1% | -1% |
15 |
ATX
Austin Bold FC |
2% | 1% | <1% | 1% | +1% |
If you want a statistical marker of what reeling off eight consecutive shutouts will do for a team, take a look at the Tampa Bay Rowdies, who now sit as fivethirtyeight.com’s narrow favorite to claim the USL Championship Final in November. Their 11 percent rise has pushed Phoenix down as second-favorite, while Louisville City FC and El Paso Locomotive FC are favored to be their Conference Final opponents for a second consecutive season.
Others have arrived on the leaderboard like FC Tulsa and Austin Bold FC, but with everyone beyond the top four now at five percent or lower, the computer has honed in on the teams it believes are the most complete, and as such the most likely to claim the crown with one quarter of the regular season to go.
Tag(s): Features San Antonio FC CO Spring Switchbacks LA Galaxy II OKC Energy FC Orange County SC Phoenix Rising FC Real Monarchs SLC Rio Grande Valley FC Sacramento Republic FC FC Tulsa Charleston Battery Charlotte Independence Louisville City FC New York Red Bulls II Pittsburgh Riverhounds Tampa Bay Rowdies Insights Las Vegas Lights FC Birmingham Legion FC Austin Bold FC Atlanta United 2 Indy Eleven Memphis 901 FC El Paso Locomotive FC New Mexico United Loudoun United FC Hartford Athletic Tacoma Defiance San Diego Loyal SC Sporting KC II Miami FC Oakland Roots SC