We reached the official midway point of the 2021 USL Championship season on Sunday night with Tacoma Defiance’s 3-1 victory against Oakland Roots SC marking the 248th game of the campaign. After taking a look back on where things stood one-quarter of the way into the season, we’re revisiting the projections made by fivethirtyeight.com and see how each club’s playoff stock had risen or fallen since we last checked in on June 25.

Here’s our latest look at the division-by-division changes, and who the favorites are now to claim the USL Championship Final at the end of the season to see which clubs the projections are buying or selling as contenders.

ATLANTIC DIVISION

Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC has surpassed the Tampa Bay Rowdies in the standings for now, and has closed the gap in the projections in terms of who’ll finish first or second in the Atlantic at the end of the season after an undefeated run through July that continued last Friday night against the Charleston Battery.

The big riser this time around, though, is Miami FC which has shaken off its slow start to move into a solid third position. The number-crunchers still aren’t quite buying what Hartford Athletic is selling, however, as the Charlotte Independence have added some big names like Christian Fuchs to provide a boost to their flagging position and overall projection.

CENTRAL DIVISION

Louisville City FC has cemented its place as a basic lock to reach the postseason, and even with a few hiccups along the way Birmingham Legion FC is right there with them, added it its likelihood of a third consecutive postseason appearance and the potential of a first home playoff games as well.

Then it starts to get a bit muddier, with FC Tulsa’s form leaving it right around where he was one quarter of the way through, and Indy Eleven’s results finally catching up to the projected quality of its squad on paper. It’s going to be very interesting to see what the rest of this month holds – and where we stand – when the start of September arrives.

MOUNTAIN DIVISION

El Paso Locomotive has gone from being projected as a solid playoff prospect in preseason to a serious title contender now, and rightly so with the most points in the Championship at the end of Week 16 and the fewest losses as well. It’s hard to see the playoff not being part of Locomotive FC’s November plans.

The rest of the division has continued to see the emergence of Rio Grande Valley FC – which continued to progress despite a slightly more up and down second quarter of the season – and a small rebound for San Antonio C in the projection as well. New Mexico is the one to take the fall as a result, but they’re still a coin-flip to advance after the departures from Bold FC left it as the least likely side to reach the postseason outside of the Monarchs.

PACIFIC DIVISION

The projections look very much like the standings, with one exception in Sacramento Republic FC. The projections still believe that Sacramento’s on-paper quality will out over its fellow rivals for fourth place, although the faith isn’t what it was with Tacoma making a serious surge up in more than doubling its playoff odds in recent weeks.

At the top, though, not much has changed. Phoenix Rising FC is still a firm favorite to finish top and vie with El Paso Locomotive FC and Louisville City FC for the most points in the league and homefield advantage in the playoffs, while Orange County SC’s inconsistency hasn’t yet caused it a serious threat to drop out of the top three overall alongside San Diego Loyal SC.

USL CHAMPIONSHIP TITLE WINNER PROJECTIONS

Phoenix continues to shift up in the ratings at the midway point of the season, but the big mover in the past two months has been Locomotive FC, which has doubled its title odds since we last checked in at the end of June. That’s a significant upswing and an indicator of everything that Head Coach Mark Lowry and his squad are doing right now.

Also making positive progress are Riverhounds SC, up to an eight percent chance to lift the trophy for the first time and joining LouCity and the Rowdies as the leading contenders in the Eastern Conference. There’s still plenty to play for, but the roadmap to the postseason and the final game of the year is still – in some areas, at least – becoming clearer.