Wednesday night saw the USL Championship play the 124th game of the regular season, which means the current season is now officially one-quarter complete. With that in mind, we thought we’d take a look back over the preseason projections made by fivethirtyeight.com and see how each club’s playoff stock had risen or fallen in the past two months.

We’re going to take this division by division, and then take a look at the overall USL Championship Final odds at the end to see which clubs the projections are buying or selling as contenders.

ATLANTIC DIVISION

For fivethirtyeight.com, the Tampa Bay Rowdies and Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC are tracking to be exactly where they were expected to be, and the Charlotte Independence have made some really nice ground, picking up wins to go with the arrivals of early-season signings like Dane Kelly, who’s now bagged three goals this season.

The other big mover? Well, in a positive direction that’s Hartford Athletic, which is now trending toward being a coin-flip to be in the top four at the end of the season as the biggest riser in the division. On the other hand, things aren’t looking as rosy for Miami FC or the Charleston Battery right now with both taking pretty heavy hits off their initial projections.

CENTRAL DIVISION

There should be no surprise that Louisville City FC has strengthened its hand at the top of the projections, and they’re now joined by Legion FC in the rarified air of being a 90+% lock to advance to the postseason. What’s maybe as interesting, though, is it appears the projections look at Atlanta United 2 as somewhat of a mirage. They’re up, sure, but maybe not as much as you might expect given some of the results they’ve produced.

The projection seems confident that Indy is going to get things turned around, and that FC Tulsa is going to be OK as well. It’s going to be interesting to see if someone can buck those odds.

MOUNTAIN DIVISION

There’s no question fivethirtyeight.com loved San Antonio on paper before the season began, but the overall strength of the division has dropped those odds by the largest margin of any club in the Championship from its previous projection. That appears to have been at least partly caused by Rio Grande Valley, which has made the biggest gain of any club thanks to new Head Coach Wilmer Cabrera and his side’s run to the top of the standings going into this weekend’s action.

El Paso Locomotive FC and New Mexico United both look in good shape for now, but this certainly looks like it could have plenty of twists and turns on the way to determining a top four at the end of the campaign.

PACIFIC DIVISION

Phoenix was the most likely team to reach the playoffs when the season began, and it has only made that position stronger with its play over the first two months of the season, angling up to a 99-percent chance it will be in a fifth consecutive postseason.

Elsewhere, the swings in the Pacific Division haven’t been as wild, probably because San Diego Loyal SC has managed to regroup and get itself back close to where it was projected to be. Even with Sacramento suffering a pretty decent hit to its odds, the model seems to believe the club’s current downturn of form won’t last for long as it still has SRFC sitting in fourth place after it’s all said and done.

USL CHAMPIONSHIP TITLE WINNER PROJECTIONS

Given its massive SPI rating of 38.0 – which ranks the club No. 343 in fivethirtyeight.com’s World Club rankings ahead of Major League Soccer’s Atlanta United FC (No. 347) at time of writing – it comes as no surprise that Phoenix is still the favorite to lift the trophy at the end of the season even with two defeats to its name.

What might be surprising, though, is that the side that beat Phoenix in May, the Tampa Bay Rowdies, isn’t even a second-favorite as of now. That distinction goes to Louisville City FC at odds of 13 percent, while San Antonio has taken a major hit, going from contender at nine percent in preseason to the middle of the pack at four percent as of now.