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BY THE NUMBERS – Projecting the Championship Playoffs Field

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 06/25/21, 9:00AM EDT

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With a quarter of the season complete, how have your club’s playoff odds moved?


The Tampa Bay Rowdies and Phoenix Rising FC are both projected to claim their division titles, but Rising FC remains the favorite to lift the USL Championship Final trophy with a quarter of the season complete. | Photo courtesy Matt May / Tampa Bay Rowdie

Wednesday night saw the USL Championship play the 124th game of the regular season, which means the current season is now officially one-quarter complete. With that in mind, we thought we’d take a look back over the preseason projections made by fivethirtyeight.com and see how each club’s playoff stock had risen or fallen in the past two months.

We’re going to take this division by division, and then take a look at the overall USL Championship Final odds at the end to see which clubs the projections are buying or selling as contenders.

ATLANTIC DIVISION


Team Preseason Playoff Odds Current Playoff Odds +/-
1
TBR
Tampa Bay Rowdies
90% 97%
+7%
2
PIT
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
PIT
79% 86%
+7%
3
CLT
Charlotte Independence
68% 84%
+16%
4
MIA
The Miami FC
67% 45%
-22%
5
CHS
Charleston Battery
52% 34%
-18%
6
HFD
Hartford Athletic
23% 43%
+20%
7
NY
New York Red Bulls II
12% 4%
-8%
8
LDN
Loudoun United FC
8% 6%
-2%

For fivethirtyeight.com, the Tampa Bay Rowdies and Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC are tracking to be exactly where they were expected to be, and the Charlotte Independence have made some really nice ground, picking up wins to go with the arrivals of early-season signings like Dane Kelly, who’s now bagged three goals this season.

The other big mover? Well, in a positive direction that’s Hartford Athletic, which is now trending toward being a coin-flip to be in the top four at the end of the season as the biggest riser in the division. On the other hand, things aren’t looking as rosy for Miami FC or the Charleston Battery right now with both taking pretty heavy hits off their initial projections.

CENTRAL DIVISION


Team Preseason Playoff Odds Current Playoff Odds +/-
1
LOU
Louisville City FC
86% 97%
+11%
2
IND
Indy Eleven
79% 76%
-3%
3
BHM
Birmingham Legion FC
70% 92%
+22%
4
TUL
FC Tulsa
57% 54%
-3%
5
MEM
Memphis 901 FC
42% 42%
0
6
OKC
OKC Energy FC
34% 15%
-19%
7
SKC
Sporting KC II
17% 5%
-12%
8
ATL
Atlanta United 2
14% 20%
+6%

There should be no surprise that Louisville City FC has strengthened its hand at the top of the projections, and they’re now joined by Legion FC in the rarified air of being a 90+% lock to advance to the postseason. What’s maybe as interesting, though, is it appears the projections look at Atlanta United 2 as somewhat of a mirage. They’re up, sure, but maybe not as much as you might expect given some of the results they’ve produced.

The projection seems confident that Indy is going to get things turned around, and that FC Tulsa is going to be OK as well. It’s going to be interesting to see if someone can buck those odds.

MOUNTAIN DIVISION


Team Preseason Playoff Odds Current Playoff Odds +/-
1
SA
San Antonio FC
91% 67%
-24%
2
ELP
El Paso Locomotive FC
73% 82%
+9%
3
NM
New Mexico United
72% 75%
+3%
4
ATX
Austin Bold FC
56% 44%
-12%
5
COS
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
50% 63%
+13%
6
RGV
Rio Grande Valley FC
30% 62%
+32%
7
SLC
Real Monarchs SLC
29% 7%
-22%

There’s no question fivethirtyeight.com loved San Antonio on paper before the season began, but the overall strength of the division has dropped those odds by the largest margin of any club in the Championship from its previous projection. That appears to have been at least partly caused by Rio Grande Valley, which has made the biggest gain of any club thanks to new Head Coach Wilmer Cabrera and his side’s run to the top of the standings going into this weekend’s action.

El Paso Locomotive FC and New Mexico United both look in good shape for now, but this certainly looks like it could have plenty of twists and turns on the way to determining a top four at the end of the campaign.

PACIFIC DIVISION


Team Preseason Playoff Odds Current Playoff Odds +/-
1
PHX
Phoenix Rising FC
96% 99%
+3%
2
OC
Orange County SC
86% 87%
+1%
3
SAC
Sacramento Republic FC
83% 66%
-17%
4
SD
San Diego Loyal
71% 69%
-2%
5
OAK
Oakland Roots SC
20% 34%
+14%
6
TAC
Tacoma Defiance
21% 18%
-3%
7
LV
Las Vegas Lights FC
13% 13%
0
8
LA
LA Galaxy II
11% 13%
+2%

Phoenix was the most likely team to reach the playoffs when the season began, and it has only made that position stronger with its play over the first two months of the season, angling up to a 99-percent chance it will be in a fifth consecutive postseason.

Elsewhere, the swings in the Pacific Division haven’t been as wild, probably because San Diego Loyal SC has managed to regroup and get itself back close to where it was projected to be. Even with Sacramento suffering a pretty decent hit to its odds, the model seems to believe the club’s current downturn of form won’t last for long as it still has SRFC sitting in fourth place after it’s all said and done.

USL CHAMPIONSHIP TITLE WINNER PROJECTIONS


Team Preseason Title Odds Current Title Odds +/-
1
PHX
Phoenix Rising FC
18% 21%
+3%
2
TBR
Tampa Bay Rowdies
10% 11%
+1%
3
SA
San Antonio FC
9% 4%
-5%
4
LOU
Louisville City FC
8% 13%
+5%
5
OC
Orange County SC
7% 5%
-2%
6
SAC
Sacramento Republic FC
6% 3%
-3%
7
IND
Indy Eleven
6% 3%
-3%
8
PIT
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
PIT
5% 6%
+1%
9
BHM
Birmingham Legion FC
4% 5%
+1%
10
ELP
El Paso Locomotive FC
4% 5%
+1%
11
SD
San Diego Loyal
3% 2%
-1%
12
NM
New Mexico United
3% 4%
+1%
13
CLT
Charlotte Independence
3% 4%
+1%
14
MIA
The Miami FC
3% 1%
-2%
15
TUL
FC Tulsa
2% 1%
-1%
16
ATX
Austin Bold FC
2% 1%
-1%

Given its massive SPI rating of 38.0 – which ranks the club No. 343 in fivethirtyeight.com’s World Club rankings ahead of Major League Soccer’s Atlanta United FC (No. 347) at time of writing – it comes as no surprise that Phoenix is still the favorite to lift the trophy at the end of the season even with two defeats to its name.

What might be surprising, though, is that the side that beat Phoenix in May, the Tampa Bay Rowdies, isn’t even a second-favorite as of now. That distinction goes to Louisville City FC at odds of 13 percent, while San Antonio has taken a major hit, going from contender at nine percent in preseason to the middle of the pack at four percent as of now.

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