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Murray vs. Machine – Which Preseason Predictions Will Prove More Accurate?

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 04/23/21, 12:00PM EDT

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Our expert takes on FiveThirtyEight.com’s preseason projections


The Tampa Bay Rowdies' Sebastian Guenzatti, Louisville City FC's Paolo DelPiccolo, El Paso Locomotive FC's Dylan Mares and Phoenix Rising FC's Rufat Dadashov will all be looking to lead their teams to success in the 2021 USL Championship season.

We’ve reached the start of the 2021 USL Championship season, which means everyone has their own ideas as to how this new campaign is going to play out. Will Phoenix Rising FC finally get its hands on the USL Championship Final trophy, or will a new challenger rise to break through as the Tampa Bay Rowdies did a season ago to end Louisville City FC’s run of three consecutive Eastern Conference Titles? 

Throughout our 2021 USL Championship Season Preview capsules, Nicholas Murray has been offering his projections for where each team in the Atlantic, Central, Mountain and Pacific Divisions will finish at the end of the season, and as a result which 16 teams will make up the 2021 USL Championship Playoffs. 

Those projections are also available at analytics website fivethirtyeight.com, which has crunched the numbers for all of the teams to come up with the chances each team has to top its division, make the playoffs, and win the USL Championship Final. 

Here’s a look at those predictions side-by-side, with Murray’s analysis of his own and fivethirtyeight.com’s rankings. 

 

ATLANTIC DIVISION 

FiveThirtyEight Murray
1
TBR
Tampa Bay Rowdies
TBR
Tampa Bay Rowdies
2
PIT
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
CHS
Charleston Battery
3
CLT
Charlotte Independence
MIA
The Miami FC
4
MIA
The Miami FC
PIT
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
5
CHS
Charleston Battery
CLT
Charlotte Independence
6
HFD
Hartford Athletic
HFD
Hartford Athletic
7
NY
New York Red Bulls II
NY
New York Red Bulls II
8
LDN
Loudoun United FC
LDN
Loudoun United FC

 

analysis


I’ve got to say, with the players they have returning and the consistency they’ve shown over the years, I’m very surprised to see the Charleston Battery sitting in fifth place in the FiveThirtyEight.com rankings here. The Battery’s streak of reaching the playoffs in every season of the league’s history is one of the most impressive in the league’s history, and I just don’t see them dropping that far. It feels much more likely that with the turnover at both the Charlotte Independence and Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, there’ll be a battle to the end for fourth spot, where I think the Hounds just edge it to advance to the postseason. 

 

CENTRAL DIVISION 

FiveThirtyEight Murray
1
LOU
Louisville City FC
LOU
Louisville City FC
2
IND
Indy Eleven
TUL
FC Tulsa
3
BHM
Birmingham Legion FC
BHM
Birmingham Legion FC
4
TUL
FC Tulsa
IND
Indy Eleven
5
MEM
Memphis 901 FC
OKC
OKC Energy FC
6
OKC
OKC Energy FC
MEM
Memphis 901 FC
7
SKC
Sporting Kansas City II
SKC
Sporting Kansas City II
8
ATL
Atlanta United 2
ATL
Atlanta United 2

Analysis


Well, we’ve got exactly the same postseason teams, but in not quite the same order. I might be overly ambitious in putting FC Tulsa as the closest challenger to Louisville City FC, but I really like the atmosphere that Head Coach Michael Nsien is building at ONEOK Field as well as the talent in that squad. Indy, though, is going to be out for a big bounce-back season and has some seriously good players as well. The four regular-season meetings between the Boys in Blue and Louisville City FC would be even more compelling than usual if the top spot in the division was on the line. 

 

MOUNTAIN DIVISION 

FiveThirtyEight Murray
1
SA
San Antonio FC
ELP
EL Paso Locomotive FC
2
ELP
EL Paso Locomotive FC
SA
San Antonio FC
3
NM
New Mexico United
NM
New Mexico United
4
ATX
Austin Bold FC
COS
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
5
COS
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
ATX
Austin Bold FC
6
RGV
Rio Grande Valley FC
RGV
Rio Grande Valley FC
7
SLC
Real Monarchs SLC
SLC
Real Monarchs SLC

Analysis


I know what the numbers say about San Antonio FC – don’t get me wrong, I think they’re going to be a serious contender as well – but I can’t get past the way El Paso Locomotive FC has consistently been more than the sum of its parts in its first two seasons. That cohesiveness, coupled with an attack that should be boosted by former SAFC man Luis Solignac, should make for some epic battles between the Copa Tejas rivals. Also, count me among the believers in Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC. The new home, new coach and new players are going to give them a solid bounce and a return to the playoffs. 

 

PACIFIC DIVISION 

FiveThirtyEight Murray
1
PHX
Phoenix Rising FC
PHX
Phoenix Rising FC
2
OC
Orange County SC
SAC
Sacramento Republic FC
3
SAC
Sacramento Republic FC
SD
San Diego Loyal SC
4
SD
San Diego Loyal SC
OC
Orange County SC
5
OAK
Oakland Roots SC
OAK
Oakland Roots SC
6
TAC
Tacoma Defiance
LA
LA Galaxy II
7
LV
Las Vegas Lights FC
LV
Las Vegas Lights FC
8
LA
LA Galaxy II
TAC
Tacoma Defiance

Analysis


It’s confession time: I was really tempted to push Sacramento Republic FC into first place here and chickened out at the last minute. Part of that is because Phoenix is still absolutely awesome in attack, and in adding Aodhan Quinn gets another massive piece for its midfield. At the same time, I really like what Sacramento is building, especially the addition of Fatai Alashe and Luis Felipe Fernandes in central midfield that could make Republic FC one of the toughest teams to break down this year. I also have questions about Phoenix’s back line after their offseason departures, and there’s also a really good chance that San Diego Loyal SC and Orange County SC are going to crash the party completely. That means Oakland Roots SC just misses out on a postseason berth, but the potential for chaos at the top of the Pacific is really high in my mind. 

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