We’ve reached the start of the 2021 USL Championship season, which means everyone has their own ideas as to how this new campaign is going to play out. Will Phoenix Rising FC finally get its hands on the USL Championship Final trophy, or will a new challenger rise to break through as the Tampa Bay Rowdies did a season ago to end Louisville City FC’s run of three consecutive Eastern Conference Titles? 

Throughout our 2021 USL Championship Season Preview capsules, Nicholas Murray has been offering his projections for where each team in the Atlantic, Central, Mountain and Pacific Divisions will finish at the end of the season, and as a result which 16 teams will make up the 2021 USL Championship Playoffs. 

Those projections are also available at analytics website fivethirtyeight.com, which has crunched the numbers for all of the teams to come up with the chances each team has to top its division, make the playoffs, and win the USL Championship Final. 

Here’s a look at those predictions side-by-side, with Murray’s analysis of his own and fivethirtyeight.com’s rankings. 

ATLANTIC DIVISION 

analysis

I’ve got to say, with the players they have returning and the consistency they’ve shown over the years, I’m very surprised to see the Charleston Battery sitting in fifth place in the FiveThirtyEight.com rankings here. The Battery’s streak of reaching the playoffs in every season of the league’s history is one of the most impressive in the league’s history, and I just don’t see them dropping that far. It feels much more likely that with the turnover at both the Charlotte Independence and Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, there’ll be a battle to the end for fourth spot, where I think the Hounds just edge it to advance to the postseason. 

CENTRAL DIVISION 

Analysis

Well, we’ve got exactly the same postseason teams, but in not quite the same order. I might be overly ambitious in putting FC Tulsa as the closest challenger to Louisville City FC, but I really like the atmosphere that Head Coach Michael Nsien is building at ONEOK Field as well as the talent in that squad. Indy, though, is going to be out for a big bounce-back season and has some seriously good players as well. The four regular-season meetings between the Boys in Blue and Louisville City FC would be even more compelling than usual if the top spot in the division was on the line. 

MOUNTAIN DIVISION 

Analysis

I know what the numbers say about San Antonio FC – don’t get me wrong, I think they’re going to be a serious contender as well – but I can’t get past the way El Paso Locomotive FC has consistently been more than the sum of its parts in its first two seasons. That cohesiveness, coupled with an attack that should be boosted by former SAFC man Luis Solignac, should make for some epic battles between the Copa Tejas rivals. Also, count me among the believers in Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC. The new home, new coach and new players are going to give them a solid bounce and a return to the playoffs. 

PACIFIC DIVISION 

Analysis

It’s confession time: I was really tempted to push Sacramento Republic FC into first place here and chickened out at the last minute. Part of that is because Phoenix is still absolutely awesome in attack, and in adding Aodhan Quinn gets another massive piece for its midfield. At the same time, I really like what Sacramento is building, especially the addition of Fatai Alashe and Luis Felipe Fernandes in central midfield that could make Republic FC one of the toughest teams to break down this year. I also have questions about Phoenix’s back line after their offseason departures, and there’s also a really good chance that San Diego Loyal SC and Orange County SC are going to crash the party completely. That means Oakland Roots SC just misses out on a postseason berth, but the potential for chaos at the top of the Pacific is really high in my mind.