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Race for the Championship Playoffs – Everything You Need to Know

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 09/14/20, 12:30PM EDT

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The Hounds are in, and four teams Magic Numbers are down to one to start the week

Welcome to the Race to the Championship Playoffs Presented by Synchronicity, where we start with congratulations to Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, the first team to clinch a place in the 2020 USL Championship Playoffs on Saturday night. They’re likely to be joined by at least four more teams this week, all of which enter with a Magic Number of just 1 point as the action resumes on Tuesday, and potentially more.

Here’s an up-to-date look at where everyone stands after this weekend’s action, including Magic Numbers and each club’s potential to finish in one of the top two positions in their group. And to start us off, three contests that could prove absolutely crucial for both clubs involved over the next two nights.

 

Playoff Games to Watch

LA Galaxy II vs. Las Vegas Lights FC

Tuesday, 10 p.m. ET
Venue: Dignity Health Sports Park
Group B

What to Know - With five games remaining, the LA Galaxy II are the favorites to finish second in the three-horse race that includes them, San Diego Loyal SC and Orange County SC. In order to keep the pressure on its rivals, Los Dos is going to need to take all three points here against Las Vegas Lights FC and move into second place ahead of San Diego, which defeated Orange County this past Sunday to provide another twist in the road to the playoffs.

Indy Eleven vs. Louisville City FC

Wednesday, 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Group E

What to Know - Indy Eleven is going to be looking for its first competitive win in almost two-and-a-half years against Louisville City FC when the LIPAFC’s final regular season edition of this season lands at Lucas Oil Stadium on Wednesday. Since the Boys in Blue won on May 5, 2018, LouCity has gone 5-0-4 across the regular season and playoffs against its rival. If Louisville can find its third win of the regular season series this time around, it would take a four-point lead for first place and also keep Saint Louis FC in with a chance at overtaking Indy for second down the stretch.

San Antonio FC vs. Austin Bold FC

Wednesday, 9 p.m. ET
Venue: Toyota Field
Group D

What to Know - San Antonio FC was seconds away from clinching its first playoff place since 2017 before El Paso Locomotive FC’s late winner on Saturday night. Now SAFC will get to try and clinch at home, but will need to do so against an Austin Bold FC side that needs three points to overtake FC Tulsa for second place in their duel for the group’s second playoff berth. Those stakes should make for some good entertainment for neutral fans, and a tense night for both fanbases.

western Conference

 

Group A

3. Reno 1868 FC
1. Reno 1868 FC
Record: 8-2-1, 25pts
Playoff Odds: >99 percent
First Place Odds: 80%
Second Place Odds: 20%
Max. Points Available: 40pts
Magic Number: 1pt
Up Next: vs. TAC (9/16)
Reno didn’t get to clinch on Saturday night after its late equalizer against Sacramento Republic FC, but that goal by Aidan Apodaca could be a key one in the big picture. 1868 FC now has the highest available points total with five games to go, so clinching a playoff place with a win against Tacoma on Wednesday night would be a big plus.
2. Sacramento Republic FC
2. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 7-1-4, 25pts
Playoff Odds: >99 percent
First Place Odds: 20%
Second Place Odds: 80%
Max. Points Available: 37pts
Magic Number: 1pt
Up Next: vs. TAC (9/19)
Sacramento’s late concession against Reno 1868 FC on Saturday swung the race for first place back the way of its rivals in addition to meaning Republic FC missed out on clinching a playoff berth. That should still arrive on Wednesday night, although Sacramento might be hoping to wait until it hosts Tacoma on Saturday, since that would mean the Defiance had beaten Reno on Wednesday night.
3. Tacoma Defiance
3. Tacoma Defiance
Record: 2-7-1, 7pts
Playoff Odds: <1 percent
First Place Odds: <1%
Second Place Odds: <1%
Max. Points Available: 25pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at RNO (9/16), at SAC (9/19)
Unless Tacoma finds a way to sweep its two-game trip to Reno and Sacramento this week, it’s officially over for the Defiance for this season.
4. Portland Timbers 2
4. Portland Timbers 2
Record: 1-10-0, 3pts
Playoff Odds: Eliminated
First Place Odds: N/A
Second Place Odds:N/A
Max. Points Available: 18pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at SLC (9/16), vs. RNO (9/20)
Portland could push the defending title-holders to the brink of elimination with a win on Wednesday night, but that will likely make Real a very tough nut to crack before T2 heads home to face group leader Reno.
 

Group B

Phoenix Rising FC
1. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 8-2-2, 26pts
Playoff Odds: 99 percent
First Place Odds: >99%
Second Place Odds: 1%
Max. Points Available: 38pts
Magic Number: 5pts
Up Next: vs. SD (9/19)
Phoenix could now feasibly clinch a playoff place this week. Should Orange County SC fail to take victory against Las Vegas Lights FC on Friday night and then Rising FC defeat San Diego Loyal SC on Saturday, it’s guaranteed to be clear of both OCSC and SD Loyal in the standings. San Diego looks like it might be a tougher proposition than when Phoenix took a 2-0 win back on August 15, though.
2. San Diego Loyal SC
2. San Diego Loyal SC
Record: 5-4-4, 19pts
Playoff Odds: 12 percent
First Place Odds: <1%
Second Place Odds: 12%
Max. Points Available: 28pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at PHX (9/19)
San Diego is playing its best soccer of the season right now, but it’s still going to be a battle to hold onto second place with three games to go. The biggest issue is two of those three games come against Phoenix Rising FC, and while both the Galaxy II and Orange County are also on Rising FC’s slate, they also get to face Las Vegas a couple of times as well down the stretch, instead of two games with the group leader.
3. LA Galaxy II
3. LA Galaxy II
Record: 6-5-0, 18pts
Playoff Odds: 48 percent
First Place Odds: 1%
Second Place Odds: 47%
Max. Points Available: 33pts
Magic Number: 13pts
Up Next: vs. LV (9/15)
In a strange way, the best result for the Galaxy II happened on Sunday night with SD Loyal winning against Orange County. Now Los Dos can try to bounce back ahead of San Diego while still holding a game in hand on Tuesday night when it hosts Las Vegas Lights FC.
4. Orange County SC
4. Orange County SC
Record: 5-4-3, 18pts
Playoff Odds: 40 percent
First Place Odds: <1%
Second Place Odds: 40%
Max. Points Available: 30pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. LV (9/18)
Orange County couldn’t have run into a three-game losing streak at a worse moment this season, but there is still time to salvage second place with four games to go. It’s got to start on Friday night against Las Vegas Lights FC, though.
5. Las Vegas Lights FC
5. Las Vegas Lights FC
Record: 2-6-3, 9pts
Playoff Odds: <1 percent
First Place Odds: <1%
Second Place Odds: <1%
Max. Points Available: 24pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at LA (9/15), at OC (9/18)
Las Vegas might be looking out of the playoff race itself, but it’s still going to have a big say as to who advances in the end. Certainly, San Diego would be thrilled if Lights FC can take points off one or both of the Galaxy II and Orange County this week.
 

Group C

1. New Mexico United
1. New Mexico United
Record: 7-3-2, 23pts
Playoff Odds: >99 percent
First Place Odds: 67%
Second Place Odds: 33%
Max. Points Available: 35pts
Magic Number: 3pts
Up Next: vs. COS (9/19)
The only way the weekend could have gone better for New Mexico was if San Antonio had stayed undefeated and not given up a late own goal against El Paso. Still, United’s victory against Real Monarchs SLC means it gets the chance to clinch on Saturday night when it “hosts” Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC. NMU can clinch before then, however, if the Monarchs lose to Portland on Wednesday night.
2. El Paso Locomotive FC
2. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 6-2-3, 21pts
Playoff Odds: 99 percent
First Place Odds: 33%
Second Place Odds: 66%
Max. Points Available: 36pts
Magic Number: 5pts
Up Next: vs. COS (9/16), vs. SLC (9/19)
This is a crucial week for Locomotive FC’s pursuit of first place in the group as it gets the fourth-placed Switchbacks and third-placed Monarchs at home with a chance to jump past New Mexico United. With five points needed, though, it could also be the week that El Paso clinches a playoff berth, and should it take victory on Wednesday night and the Monarchs fail to take victory against Portland, Locomotive FC will be into the postseason.
3. Real Monarchs SLC
3. Real Monarchs SLC
Record: 3-7-1, 10pts
Playoff Odds: 1 percent
First Place Odds: <1%
Second Place Odds: 1%
Max. Points Available: 25pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. POR (9/16), at ELP (9/19)
The prior back-to-back wins don’t mean much now after Saturday’s loss to New Mexico United. Real could get officially eliminated this week with a visit to second-placed El Paso on Saturday night.
4. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
4. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 1-5-5, 8pts
Playoff Odds: <1 percent
First Place Odds: <1%
Second Place Odds: <1%
Max. Points Available: 23pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at ELP (9/16), vs. NM (9/19)
With five games to go, New Mexico is officially out of reach on seven wins, and El Paso will be as well unless the Switchbacks take victory on Wednesday night at Southwest University Park.
 

Group D

1. San Antonio FC
1. San Antonio FC
Record: 8-1-3, 27pts
Playoff Odds: >99 percent
First Place Odds: >99%
Second Place Odds: <1%
Max. Points Available: 39pts
Magic Number: 1pt
Up Next: Up Next: vs. ATX (9/16), vs. OKC (9/19)
Boy, that was about the hardest way to see an undefeated season come to an end in El Paso. Still, San Antonio is going to win this group eventually, and it would seal top spot with a draw on Wednesday against Austin. A win would be preferable for future homefield advantage considerations, though.
2. FC Tulsa
2. FC Tulsa
Record: 3-2-7, 16pts
Playoff Odds: 41 percent
First Place Odds: <1%
Second Place Odds: 41%
Max. Points Available: 28pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at RGV (9/19)
Goals can change games, but they can also change seasons. OKC Energy FC’s late equalizer against Tulsa on Saturday opened the door for Austin Bold FC in what’s really now a duel for second place. Tulsa will sit and hope San Antonio FC can knock off Austin on Wednesday night to allow it to retain second place going into the weekend.
3. Austin Bold FC
3. Austin Bold FC
Record: 3-2-6, 15pts
Playoff Odds: 58 percent
First Place Odds: <1%
Second Place Odds: 58%
Max. Points Available: 30pts
Magic Number: 16pts
Up Next: at SA (9/16)
Aside from Energy FC fans, there was no group happier to see Omar Gordon’s header find the net against Tulsa than everyone in Austin’s camp, with the door now open to second place. The big ‘if’ is whether Bold FC can take control of second place on Wednesday as it visits San Antonio. If it can, it could prove a decisive moment in this stretch run.
4. OKC Energy FC
4. OKC Energy FC
Record: 1-5-6, 9pts
Playoff Odds: <1 percent
First Place Odds: <1%
Second Place Odds: <1%
Max. Points Available: 21pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at SA (9/19)
OKC’s playoff dreams are fading fast, but that late equalizer means the side still has a shot at the Black Gold Derby’s victory wrench and can spoil the season of its in-state rival when they meet for the final time this season on September 30.
5. Rio Grande Valley FC
5. Rio Grande Valley FC
Record: 0-9-3, 3pts
Playoff Odds: Eliminated
First Place Odds: N/A
Second Place Odds: N/A
Max. Points Available: 15pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at TUL (9/19)
The Toros were officially eliminated from contention after Tulsa’s draw with OKC, but at least now they’ll have the chance to do more damage to Tulsa’s playoff chances at H-E-B Park on Saturday.

eastern conference

 

Group E

1. Louisville City FC
1. Louisville City FC
Record: 7-3-2, 23pts
Playoff Odds: 97 percent
First Place Odds: 62%
Second Place Odds: 36%
Max. Points Available: 35pts
Magic Number: 8pts
Up Next: at IND (9/16), vs. MEM (9/19)
Louisville regained first place on Saturday night with its win against Saint Louis, and on Wednesday night has a chance to take control of that spot as it faces Indy Eleven for the last time in the regular season. And, of course, that’s something that Saint Louis would very much appreciate to keep its playoff hopes alive as well.
2. Indy Eleven
2. Indy Eleven
Record: 7-4-1, 22pts
Playoff Odds: 90 percent
First Place Odds: 36%
Second Place Odds: 53%
Max. Points Available: 34pts
Magic Number: 9pts
Up Next: vs. LOU (9/16)
Indy doesn’t just want victory on Wednesday night to regain first place in Group E, it wants victory against Louisville to keep its confidence high ahead of the final stretch of the season that sees it face Saint Louis FC twice. A seven-point gap between the two teams at the end of Wednesday night would be ideal for the Boys in Blue.
3. Saint Louis FC
3. Saint Louis FC
Record: 5-4-3, 18pts
Playoff Odds: 13 percent
First Place Odds: 2%
Second Place Odds: 11%
Max. Points Available: 30pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. SKC (9/19)
Saint Louis goes from the unenviable position of squaring off against its biggest rival to rooting for it when LouCity visits Indy Eleven on Wednesday night. A win for Louisville there keeps the gap between STLFC and second-placed Indy at four points, and gives Saint Louis a chance to reduce the margin when it hosts Sporting Kansas City II on Saturday night.
4. Sporting Kansas City II
4. Sporting Kansas City II
Record: 4-7-1, 13pts
Playoff Odds: <1 percent
First Place Odds: <1%
Second Place Odds: <1%
Max. Points Available: 25pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at STL (9/19)
Sporting isn’t completely out of this yet, and is also going to be rooting for Louisville on Wednesday night, but it’s going to have to beat Saint Louis on Saturday to have any chance at all.
 

Group F

1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 9-3-1, 28pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
First Place Odds: 98%
Second Place Odds: 2%
Max. Points Available: 37pts
Magic Number: Clinched
Up Next: at LDN (9/19)
You can certainly make the argument Pittsburgh clinching a playoff place first is because of the opposition in its group, and that might be fair. But right now, it’s also drilling those opponents into the ground so effectively it’s become the second-favorite (18 percent) to win the USL Championship Final according to fivethirtyeight.com.
2. Hartford Athletic
2. Hartford Athletic
Record: 6-3-1, 19pts
Playoff Odds: 89 percent
First Place Odds: 2%
Second Place Odds: 87%
Max. Points Available: 37pts
Magic Number: 9pts
Up Next: vs. NY (9/16), at PHI (9/20)
Look, even after Saturday’s result it’s probably still going to be fine for the Athletic as it faces the Union II three more times in its final six games. Should Wednesday’s game against New York also result in a loss, though, it would see Hartford’s lead in second place cut to four points, which might raise the pressure a bit.
3. New York Red Bulls II
3. New York Red Bulls II
Record: 4-7-0, 12pts
Playoff Odds: 11 percent
First Place Odds: <1%
Second Place Odds: 11%
Max. Points Available: 27pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at HFD (9/16)
This is the moment for the Red Bulls II. If they can beat Hartford on Wednesday night, we could get a genuine race for second place down the stretch. Any other result, though, and it’s hard to see New York finding a way back to the playoffs.
4. Loudoun United FC
4. Loudoun United FC
Record: 1-7-3, 6pts
Playoff Odds: <1 percent
First Place Odds: <1%
Second Place Odds: <1%
Max. Points Available: 21pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at PHI (9/16), vs. PIT (9/19)
What a performance by goalkeeper Simon Lefebvre to equal the Championship single-game record for saves with 13. That might end up being United’s highlight of the season, because the playoffs are not beckoning.
5. Philadelphia Union II
5. Philadelphia Union II
Record: 1-7-2, 5pts
Playoff Odds: <1 percent
First Place Odds: <1%
Second Place Odds: <1%
Max. Points Available: 23pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. LDN (9/16), vs. HFD (9/20)
The Union II produced chance after chance against Loudoun but couldn’t find the decisive goal. That’s moved them to the brink of elimination with Pittsburgh already out of reach and the possibility Hartford could be as well by the end of Sunday night.
 

Group G

1. Birmingham Legion FC
1. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 6-3-4, 22pts
Playoff Odds: 93 percent
First Place Odds: 47%
Second Place Odds: 47%
Max. Points Available: 31pts
Magic Number: 7pts
Up Next: at MIA (9/16)
Three games without a win and suddenly Birmingham has serious competition for first place from the Charlotte Independence. Finding a way to pick things back up in Miami on Wednesday night is going to be key to steadying the ship before the playoffs.
2. Charlotte Independence
2. Charlotte Independence
Record: 6-3-3, 21pts
Playoff Odds: 91 percent
First Place Odds: 48%
Second Place Odds: 43%
Max. Points Available: 33pts
Magic Number: 8pts
Up Next: at NC (9/19)
The Independence are in the box seat to claim first place after its victory in Birmingham on Saturday night. In addition, it could move very close to clinching a playoff place this Saturday as it visits in-state rival North Carolina for a third meeting this season. Given that’s going to be a must-win for NCFC’s playoff chances, it should be a must-see for fans.
3. North Carolina FC
3. North Carolina FC
Record: 4-6-1, 13pts
Playoff Odds: 16 percent
First Place Odds: 6%
Second Place Odds: 10%
Max. Points Available: 28pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. CLT (9/19)
The past four days were exactly why North Carolina could be on the brink of elimination by the end of this week, and also why it could still be right in the middle of the playoff hunt. When NCFC turns it on – as it did while rallying twice against Memphis, only to fall once and win once – it can be excellent. But it hasn’t happened consistently enough so far which has resulted in the predicament North Carolina finds itself in.
4. Memphis 901 FC
4. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 2-6-4, 10pts
Playoff Odds: <1percent
First Place Odds: <1%
Second Place Odds: <1%
Max. Points Available: 22pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at LOU (9/19)
At halftime on Sunday afternoon, there must have been hope in Memphis’ locker room that a sweep was coming from its trip to North Carolina. Then 901 FC got swept away instead and is now on the brink of official elimination as it goes to a ridiculously hot Louisville side on Saturday.
 

Group H

1. Tampa Bay Rowdies
1. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 8-2-3, 27pts
Playoff Odds: >99 percent
First Place Odds: 78%
Second Place Odds: 22%
Max. Points Available: 36pts
Magic Number: 1pt
Up Next: at ATL (9/16)
The Rowdies are still going to go to the playoffs, but their chances at ensuring first place took a pretty decent hit courtesy of the Charleston Battery on Friday night. How much fun would it be if that position was decided on the final Saturday of the regular season at Al Lang Stadium?
2. Charleston Battery
2. Charleston Battery
Record: 7-2-3, 24pts
Playoff Odds: >99 percent
First Place Odds: 22%
Second Place Odds: 78%
Max. Points Available: 36pts
Magic Number: 4pts
Up Next: vs. MIA (9/20)
The Battery got their second win against the Rowdies at home this season and have set up a big potential run-in for first place thanks to the club’s game in hand. That comes next week, first a chance to clinch a playoff place against Miami FC on Sunday night.
3. Atlanta United 2
3. Atlanta United 2
Record: 2-8-3, 6pts
Playoff Odds: Eliminated
First Place Odds: N/A
Second Place Odds: N/A
Max. Points Available: 21pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. TBR (9/16)
The playoffs were officially out of reach for Atlanta after Charleston’s win on Friday night, now it will try to play spoiler over its final three games starting against Tampa Bay on Wednesday.
4. The Miami FC
4. The Miami FC
Record: 2-5-3, 9pts
Playoff Odds: <1 percent
First Place Odds: <1%
Second Place Odds: <1%
Max. Points Available: 27pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. BHM (9/16), at CHS (9/20)
Miami needs wins all the way through from here, but if it falls to the Battery on Sunday evening that’s going to be all she wrote for this season in terms of playoff chances.

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