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Race for the Championship Playoffs – Everything You Need to Know

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 09/10/20, 12:20PM EDT

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Tampa Bay, San Antonio, Pittsburgh have their first chance to clinch, here’s where everything stands

We’re in sight of seeing our first postseason berths being clinched this weekend, with Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, San Antonio FC, and the Tampa Bay Rowdies all in line to grab their playoff spot with a win on Saturday night.

Here’s an up-to-date look at where everyone stands to after Wednesday night’s action, including Magic Numbers and each club’s potential to finish in one of the top two positions in their group. And to start us off, three contests that could prove absolutely crucial for both clubs involved this weekend.

 

Playoff Games to Watch

Real Monarchs SLC vs. New Mexico United

Saturday, 2 p.m. ET
Venue: Zions Bank Stadium
Group C

What to Know - Don’t look now, but the Monarchs might be finding a second wind. After the club’s first back-to-back wins of the season coupled with their best attacking performance in 2020, the defending Championship title-holder still has ground to make up on first-placed New Mexico United and second-placed El Paso Locomotive FC, but has positive momentum on its side. The season is really on the line for Real with New Mexico visiting, though – if United wins, it would then need only one more win from its final four games to be guaranteed a playoff place. But if Real wins, with Locomotive FC playing undefeated San Antonio FC later in the night, the possibilities start to open that little bit wider.

Louisville City FC vs. Saint Louis FC

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Lynn Family Stadium
Group E

What to Know - You can guarantee every single Louisville City FC and Saint Louis FC fan tuned into Indy Eleven’s clash with Sporting Kansas City II on Wednesday night was cursing – either loudly or under their breath – when the referee ruled out SKC II’s late equalizer for a foul in the penalty area. Instead, Indy held on for all three points to move back into first place. That raises the pressure most on STLFC, which now has a four-point margin to make up as it sits in third place. If the visitors can win on Saturday for the second time at Lynn Family Stadium this season, though, then suddenly Louisville will be sitting in third place ahead of its trip to Indy next Wednesday night.

San Diego Loyal SC vs. Orange County SC

Sunday, 10:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Torero Stadium
Group B

What to Know - I’m not sure there’s a way San Diego’s Wednesday could have gone any better. Not only did SD Loyal break out for a victory and its best attacking performance of the season against the second-placed LA Galaxy II, but then third-placed Orange County SC fumbled away a lead with a man-advantage against Sacramento Republic FC. That means while San Diego has played a game more than its two rivals for second place in Group B, it’s also now only two points behind both. Should San Diego find a way to win here, it would be right in the mix for a postseason spot in its inaugural season with three weeks to go.

western conference

 

Group A

3. Reno 1868 FC
1. Reno 1868 FC
Record: 8-2-0, 24pts
Playoff Odds: >99 percent
First Place Odds: 74%
Second Place Odds: 26%
Max. Points Available: 42pts
Magic Number: 2pts
Up Next: at SAC (9/12)
Thanks to the Portland Timbers 2, Reno 1868 FC can clinch a playoff place with victory on the road against rival Sacramento Republic FC. While the playoffs are assured, staying in first place – and avoiding a likely trip to Phoenix in the opening round of the postseason – would be a very good thing.
2. Sacramento Republic FC
2. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 7-1-3, 24pts
Playoff Odds: >99 percent
First Place Odds: 26%
Second Place Odds: 74%
Max. Points Available: 39pts
Magic Number: 2pts
Up Next: vs. RNO (9/12)
Sacramento got to enjoy its thrilling comeback against Orange County SC for a night. Today’s its back to work and focusing on picking up a third win against Reno 1868 FC and first place in the standings.
3. Tacoma Defiance
3. Tacoma Defiance
Record: 2-7-1, 7pts
Playoff Odds: <1 percent
First Place Odds: <1%
Second Place Odds: <1%
Max. Points Available: 25pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at POR (9/12)
Tacoma would be eliminated this weekend if it repeats Wednesday’s loss to the Portland Timbers 2, but it’s pretty much all over even if they win.
4. Portland Timbers 2
4. Portland Timbers 2
Record: 1-10-0, 3pts
Playoff Odds: Eliminated
First Place Odds: N/A
Second Place Odds:N/A
Max. Points Available: 18pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. TAC (9/12)
Welcome to the win column, T2. If you do that again on Saturday, you get to say you eliminated the Defiance from playoff contention and can even the regular-season series.
 

Group B

Phoenix Rising FC
1. Phoenix Rising FC
Record:7-2-2, 23pts
Playoff Odds: 99 percent
First Place Odds: 96%
Second Place Odds: 3%
Max. Points Available: 38pts
Magic Number: 11pts
Up Next: vs. LV (9/11)
We’re still a little bit away from Phoenix earning its playoff berth, but it had to love seeing both Orange County and the LA Galaxy II losing on Wednesday to move it another three points closer.
2. LA Galaxy II
2. LA Galaxy II
Record: 6-5-0, 18pts
Playoff Odds: 38 percent
First Place Odds: 2%
Second Place Odds: 37%
Max. Points Available: 33pts
Magic Number: 16pts
Up Next: vs. LV (9/15)
The Galaxy II did not want that loss against San Diego, but the silver lining was Orange County’s late defeat meant Los Dos got to stay in second place for now. With its next game not until next Tuesday, though, it won’t be sitting here when we next do this with OCSC and SD Loyal meeting on Sunday.
3. Orange County SC
3. Orange County SC
Record: 5-3-3, 18pts
Playoff Odds: 57 percent
First Place Odds: 2%
Second Place Odds: 55%
Max. Points Available: 33pts
Magic Number: 16pts
Up Next: at SD (9/13)
Capitulating in Sacramento wasn’t a result many saw coming after OCSC went up a man as well as up a goal against Republic FC with just over half-an-hour to go. Finding a response in San Diego is going to be absolutely essential.
4. San Diego Loyal SC
4. San Diego Loyal SC
Record: 4-4-4, 16pts
Playoff Odds: 4 percent
First Place Odds: <1%
Second Place Odds: 4%
Max. Points Available: 28pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. SD (9/13)
That might have been the best performance SD Loyal has put in this year. While it still at a disadvantage to both the Galaxy II and Orange County, both of which have a game in hand, completing a sweep of the two clubs this week could be a serious confidence boost for the final stretch.
5. Las Vegas Lights FC
5. Las Vegas Lights FC
Record: 2-5-3, 9pts
Playoff Odds: <1 percent
First Place Odds: <1%
Second Place Odds: <1%
Max. Points Available: 27pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at LA (9/9), vs. OC (9/13)
One loss to Phoenix at home this past Saturday night was a serious blow to Las Vegas’ playoff chances. Another on the road – where Lights FC will enter given an 7 percent chance of winning – could bring an end to the club’s postseason aspirations once again.
 

Group C

1. New Mexico United
1. New Mexico United
Record: 6-3-2, 20pts
Playoff Odds: 97 percent
First Place Odds: 65%
Second Place Odds: 32%
Max. Points Available: 35pts
Magic Number: 9pts
Up Next: at SLC (9/12)
New Mexico could take a massive step toward the playoffs on Saturday – and give itself a chance to clinch at “home” when it serves as host against Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC at Weidner Field on September 19 – but the Monarchs are playing their best soccer of the year and can’t be underestimated.
2. El Paso Locomotive FC
2. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 5-2-3, 18pts
Playoff Odds: 91 percent
First Place Odds: 33%
Second Place Odds: 58%
Max. Points Available: 36pts
Magic Number: 11pts
Up Next: vs. SA (9/12)
El Paso could be sitting on top of Group C at the end of Saturday night, but if it can’t find a way to hand San Antonio FC its first loss of the season it could see Real Monarchs SLC in its rear-view mirror. With Locomotive FC and the Monarchs set to meet twice more this regular season, that gap could close quickly if Real keeps up its current form.
3. Real Monarchs SLC
3. Real Monarchs SLC
Record: 3-6-1, 10pts
Playoff Odds: 11 percent
First Place Odds: 2%
Second Place Odds: 9%
Max. Points Available: 28pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. NM (9/12)
The Monarchs have back-to-back wins and are clearly playing the confident game that carried them to a title last season. But there is still absolutely no room for error with New Mexico up next on Saturday.
4. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
4. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 1-5-5, 7pts
Playoff Odds: <1 percent
First Place Odds: <1%
Second Place Odds: <1%
Max. Points Available: 23pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at ELP (9/16)
It can’t be over for the Switchbacks this weekend – El Paso can’t eliminate it even if it beats San Antonio on Saturday – but it’s probably going to be soon enough with Colorado Springs making its own trip to El Paso next Wednesday night.
 

Group D

1. San Antonio FC
1. San Antonio FC
Record: 8-0-3, 27pts
Playoff Odds: >99 percent
First Place Odds: >99%
Second Place Odds: <1%
Max. Points Available: 42pts
Magic Number: 3pts
Up Next: at ELP (9/12)
Tuesday night’s draw between Austin Bold FC and FC Tulsa means San Antonio can clinch a playoff place with a win against El Paso this Saturday night, with what would become SAFC’s ninth victory of the season putting the club clear of its two closest rivals in total wins. If SAFC loses, on the other hand, it would still clinch if Austin lost to Rio Grande Valley FC or Tulsa lost its rivalry clash with OKC Energy FC.
2. Austin Bold FC
2. Austin Bold FC
Record: 3-2-6, 15pts
Playoff Odds: 50 percent
First Place Odds: <1%
Second Place Odds: 50%
Max. Points Available: 30pts
Magic Number: 16pts
Up Next: at RGV (9/12)
Another day, another draw, and another boost to San Antonio’s chances of finishing first. Bold FC at least got what on paper looks the slightly easier task this weekend as it battles Tulsa, but Austin is going to have to make sure it doesn’t overlook the Toros.
3. FC Tulsa
3. FC Tulsa
Record: 3-2-6, 15pts
Playoff Odds: 49 percent
First Place Odds: <1%
Second Place Odds: 49%
Max. Points Available: 30pts
Magic Number: 16pts
Up Next: vs. OKC (9/12)
The hot streak continued, but Dario Suarez’s goals weren’t enough to earn victory against Austin Bold FC. With its two road draws, though, Tulsa is basically down to a coinflip as to whether it overtakes Austin over the final five games for both clubs. Earning all three points at home against Black Gold Derby rival OKC Energy FC would be a good start to that end.
4. OKC Energy FC
4. OKC Energy FC
Record: 1-5-5, 8pts
Playoff Odds: <1 percent
First Place Odds: <1%
Second Place Odds: <1%
Max. Points Available: 25pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at TUL (9/12)
Energy FC might have been the team to benefit most from Wednesday’s draw between Austin and Tulsa, but it’s going to mean very little if the visitors can’t claim the Black Gold Derby on Saturday. If it accomplishes that, the playoffs might not be that far away.
5. Rio Grande Valley FC
5. Rio Grande Valley FC
Record: 0-9-3, 3pts
Playoff Odds: <1 percent
First Place Odds: <1%
Second Place Odds: <1%
Max. Points Available: 15pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. ATX (9/12)
Tuesday’s draw between Bold FC and FC Tulsa meant the Lions aren’t officially eliminated yet. But they will be, likely after Saturday’s results.

eastern conference

 

Group E

1. Indy Eleven
1. Indy Eleven
Record: 7-4-1, 22pts
Playoff Odds: 87 percent
First Place Odds: 46%
Second Place Odds: 41%
Max. Points Available: 34pts
Magic Number: 12pts
Up Next: vs. LOU (9/16)
Indy’s victory on Wednesday night was a good step in the right direction, and now it will sit back and watch Louisville City FC host Saint Louis FC on Saturday night as its two rivals for the postseason square off while getting ready for its final meeting with LouCity next week.
2. Louisville City FC
2. Louisville City FC
Record: 6-3-2, 20pts
Playoff Odds: 84 percent
First Place Odds: 44%
Second Place Odds: 40%
Max. Points Available: 35pts
Magic Number: 14pts
Up Next: vs. STL (9/12)
Louisville is in its best form of the season and has a chance at revenge for STLFC’s victory earlier this season at Lynn Family Stadium when the Kings’ Cup rivals meet for the third time. Pull off victory on Saturday, and Louisville will have a five-point lead on STLFC with four games to go.
3. Saint Louis FC
3. Saint Louis FC
Record: 5-3-3, 18pts
Playoff Odds: 29 percent
First Place Odds: 10%
Second Place Odds: 20%
Max. Points Available: 33pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at LOU (9/12)
Indy’s victory wasn’t the result either LouCity or Saint Louis was looking for on Wednesday, but with Louisville sitting two points ahead it ratcheted up the pressure even more on STLFC to get a result on Saturday. With two games still remaining against Indy, though, all is not lost if Saint Louis doesn’t take all three points.
4. Sporting Kansas City II
4. Sporting Kansas City II
Record: 4-7-1, 13pts
Playoff Odds: <1 percent
First Place Odds: <1%
Second Place Odds: <1%
Max. Points Available: 25pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at STL (9/19)
The whistle that ruled out Danny Barbir’s stoppage-time equalizer against Indy Eleven might also have blown the final whistle on SKC’s playoff chances. It’s probably going to need to win out from here, and that still might not be enough to overtake the current top two.
 

Group F

1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 8-3-1, 25pts
Playoff Odds: >99 percent
First Place Odds: 91%
Second Place Odds: 9%
Max. Points Available: 37pts
Magic Number: 3pts
Up Next: vs. HFD (9/12)
The Hounds can clinch a playoff place with victory against Hartford Athletic on Saturday, but the game is more important for Pittsburgh’s bid to finish top of Group F. With Hartford holding three games in hand, even a draw would keep the Athletic in with a chance to usurp the Hounds, so getting a third win out of three is essential for Pittsburgh.
2. Hartford Athletic
2. Hartford Athletic
Record: 6-2-1, 19pts
Playoff Odds: 92 percent
First Place Odds: 9%
Second Place Odds: 84%
Max. Points Available: 40pts
Magic Number: 9pts
Up Next: at PIT (9/12)
The Athletic might hear the footsteps of the New York Red Bulls II in the distance after Wednesday night’s result, but if they can find any kind of result in their penultimate meeting with Pittsburgh on Saturday the pressure would be released slightly before New York visits Dillon Stadium next week.
3. New York Red Bulls II
3. New York Red Bulls II
Record: 4-7-0, 12pts
Playoff Odds: 8 percent
First Place Odds: <1%
Second Place Odds: 8%
Max. Points Available: 27pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at HFD (9/16)
The Red Bulls II are still mathematically alive after their big win on Wednesday evening, and now they’ll be squarely in the corner of Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC on Saturday while hoping for a defeat for Hartford Athletic. While the numbers still aren’t in New York’s favor, it could feasibly cut its deficit to second place to four points by this time next week with a meeting with the Athletic up next Wednesday.
4. Loudoun United FC
4. Loudoun United FC
Record: 1-7-2, 5pts
Playoff Odds: <1 percent
First Place Odds: <1%
Second Place Odds: <1%
Max. Points Available: 23pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. PHI (9/12)
Saturday’s loss at Hartford meant United can’t catch Riverhounds SC in first and is almost eliminated completely. A loss to the Union II on Saturday might end the competitive portion of the season.
5. Philadelphia Union II
5. Philadelphia Union II
Record: 1-7-1, 4pts
Playoff Odds: <1 percent
First Place Odds: <1%
Second Place Odds: <1%
Max. Points Available: 25pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at LDN (9/12)
The Union II’s loss on Wednesday night showed up the club’s defensive issues, and it will likely get tested again on Saturday by Loudoun United FC.
 

Group G

1. Birmingham Legion FC
1. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 6-2-4, 22pts
Playoff Odds: 96 percent
First Place Odds: 74%
Second Place Odds: 23%
Max. Points Available: 34pts
Magic Number: 10pts
Up Next: vs. CLT (9/12)
Birmingham has hit a sticky point in its schedule and could be hearing the Charlotte Independence’s footsteps in the background. With the two sides set to meet at BBVA Field on Saturday night, Birmingham has a chance to re-establish its hold on first place.
2. Charlotte Independence
2. Charlotte Independence
Record: 5-3-3, 18pts
Playoff Odds: 71 percent
First Place Odds: 18%
Second Place Odds: 53%
Max. Points Available: 33pts
Magic Number: 14pts
Up Next: at BHM (9/12)
The past week couldn’t have gone better for the Independence, which defeated the two teams sitting below them in the standings and saw Birmingham only take one point from two games. First place is within reach now for Head Coach Mike Jeffries side, which would make it a one-point gap at the top with a game in hand on Legion FC if they can win on Saturday night at BBVA Field.
3. North Carolina FC
3. North Carolina FC
Record: 3-5-1, 10pts
Playoff Odds: 32 percent
First Place Odds: 8%
Second Place Odds: 24%
Max. Points Available: 31pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. MEM (9/10), vs. MEM (9/13)
North Carolina saw its playoff chances sink by 22 percent after its loss to the Independence on Saturday, and now has an eight-point gap to make up in seven games. The result against Charlotte wasn’t just tough in the 90 minutes, it also ensured NCFC is going to have to take maximum points from its two games in hand to get back within touch of the Independence. Two games this week with Memphis are looking like must-wins.
4. Memphis 901 FC
4. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 1-5-4, 7pts
Playoff Odds: <1percent
First Place Odds: <1%
Second Place Odds: <1%
Max. Points Available: 25pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at NC (9/10), at NC (9/13)
For a team in Memphis’ spot, draws just aren’t going to cut it at this point. And if 901 FC doesn’t take victory in either of its matches against North Carolina FC, the final curtain of the season will approach.
 

Group H

1. Tampa Bay Rowdies
1. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 8-1-3, 27pts
Playoff Odds: >99 percent
First Place Odds: 90%
Second Place Odds: 10%
Max. Points Available: 39pts
Magic Number: 1pt
Up Next: at CHS (9/11)
The Rowdies would have locked up its playoff place on Sunday night if not for Miami still having seven games left, meaning it can still technically match the Rowdies’ eight victories if it wins out. Head Coach Neill Collins isn’t bothered about clinching, though, since he’s got much bigger aspirations, and earning revenge against Charleston on Friday for Tampa Bay’s only loss of the season would be a very good step toward achieving those.
2. Charleston Battery
2. Charleston Battery
Record: 6-2-3, 21pts
Playoff Odds: 98 percent
First Place Odds: 10%
Second Place Odds: 89%
Max. Points Available: 36pts
Magic Number: 7pts
Up Next: vs. TBR (9/11)
Charleston couldn’t hold onto its lead in Miami, lessening the pressure on the Rowdies at the top of the group, but the Battery still have a path to first place if they can record a second home win against Tampa Bay on Friday night. With the way both sides are playing right now, it should have a playoff atmosphere with two teams ready to attack.
3. Atlanta United 2
3. Atlanta United 2
Record: 2-7-3, 6pts
Playoff Odds: <1 percent
First Place Odds: <1%
Second Place Odds: <1%
Max. Points Available: 21pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. MIA (9/12)
Atlanta is still alive thanks to its midweek win last week and the Battery’s draw on Saturday, and it will hope to maintain its place down the stretch with victory at home to Miami on Saturday night.
4. The Miami FC
4. The Miami FC
Record: 1-5-3, 6pts
Playoff Odds: 2 percent
First Place Odds: <1%
Second Place Odds: 2%
Max. Points Available: 27pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at ATL (9/12)
No win, and at this point likely no playoffs for Miami, which is going to need to win out and have something really strange happen to Charleston down the stretch to find a way into the playoffs from here.

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