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MURRAY: What are your Team’s Chances of Making the Playoffs?

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 08/28/20, 8:30AM EDT

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We’re at the halfway point of the regular season schedule, how are things looking for your club?


Louisville City FC and Saint Louis FC are both hoping their season ends with a trip to the 2020 USL Championship Playoffs. | Photo courtesy Em-Dash Photography / Louisville City FC

It’s the halfway point of the 2020 USL Championship season. How are your club’s playoff chances looking?

We’ve divided the 35 teams in the Championship into four categories, based off their current chances to reach the postseason according to fivethirtyeight.com’s group-by-group projections. Now let’s break down how realistic those odds look from what we’ve seen on the field so far, and what the road down the home stretch looks like.

All projections are as of Thursday morning at 8 a.m. ET.

Flying High, Locked In? (80% and Higher)


The Tampa Bay Rowdies look locked into another postseason trip as one of two remaining undefeated sides in the Championship at the halfway point of the season. | Photo courtesy Matt May / Tampa Bay Rowdies

New Mexico United
Current Playoff Odds:
>99 percent
Outlook: If you told me that halfway through the season that New Mexico would have an 88 percent chance of finishing top of Group C after playing every game on the road, I would have thought you were nuts. But here we are with Coach Troy Lesesne’s road warriors sitting with a seven-point lead on second place and 14-point lead on third with seven games to go.

Phoenix Rising FC
Current Playoff Odds:
>99 percent
Outlook: Yeah, there has been the occasional misstep, but that may just stoke the fire a little more strongly for a highly motivated squad that is in championship or bust mode. There’s no way they’re missing the playoffs.

Reno 1868 FC
Current Playoff Odds:
>99 percent
Outlook: Things definitely got more interesting in Group A than we were expecting thanks to Tacoma Defiance’s recent form, but 1868 FC is now firmly back on top of the standings. It’s going to be a race for first place between Reno and Sacramento Republic FC for first and second.

San Antonio FC
Current Playoff Odds:
>99 percent
Outlook: One of the two remaining undefeated sides in the Championship, SAFC is in great shape for a first-place finish. There’s the potential for more competition here with both Austin Bold FC and FC Tulsa looking solid, but it’s hard to see a postseason without SAFC right now.

Tampa Bay Rowdies
Current Playoff Odds:
>99 percent
Outlook: The Rowdies have not only taken care of business on the field, but they’re also in a group where the Charleston Battery have proven consistent, and neither Atlanta United 2 or Miami FC have been so far. The Rowdies are an 89 percent chance to finish first according to the projections, and it’s hard to argue with that.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Current Playoff Odds:
98 percent
Outlook: Sure, there’s a chance that one of the New York Red Bulls II, Loudoun United FC or the Philadelphia Union II could make a massive second-half turnaround. There’s also a chance that one of these weeks I’ll get my Lock selection right in Pick ‘Em. Book the Hounds in for another postseason trip.

Sacramento Republic FC
Current Playoff Odds:
98 percent
Outlook: Just like Reno, Sacramento is looking like a lock for its seventh consecutive playoff berth, and with its head-to-head success against 1868 FC so far this season it could just find a way to shift into first place by the time the campaign is done.

Birmingham Legion FC
Current Playoff Odds:
96 percent
Outlook: If you weren’t buying Legion FC before this season, you missed the boat in a big way. These guys have shown talent and resilience and used it to build a solid lead in Group G, and I’m not sure any of the group’s other clubs have the consistency to bridge what is currently a six-point lead in the standings.

Indy Eleven
Current Playoff Odds:
92 percent
Outlook: There’s no question Indy has looked like the most consistent side in Group E to this point, but I’m not sure those odds should be quite as high as they are. There’s still plenty of action left among between the Boys in Blue and both Louisville City FC and Saint Louis FC, and not that many points separating them.

Hartford Athletic
Current Playoff Odds:
92 percent
Outlook: A combination of a 180-degree turnaround on the field combined with the collapse of the New York Red Bulls II has made the Athletic a postseason shoo-in. The bottom three in Group F just don’t inspire any confidence.

Charleston Battery
Current Playoff Odds:
86 Percent
Outlook: If there’s one thing you learn following the USL Championship for a while, it’s that you never count out the Battery from making the playoffs. Even when Charleston has suffered defeat this season, it’s looked good in the process and when the Battery are on top of their game, they’re a match for anyone. The remaining series against Miami FC will determine how this plays out, and after Wednesday night’s result, I’m thinking they get the results they need.

Looking Good, but Work to Do (60% to 79%)


Sitting second in Group C, El Paso Locomotive FC is in a strong position to make its second consecutive postseason trip if it maintains its current pace. | Photo courtesy Ivan Pierre Aguirre / El Paso Locomotive FC

Orange County SC
Current Playoff Odds:
78 percent
Outlook: Well, these percentages would have been higher if not for that loss on Tuesday night to Las Vegas Lights FC. Still, it’s hard to see Orange County faltering regularly enough to not create the separation it needs to sit above San Diego Loyal SC – which OCSC takes on this Saturday – or the LA Galaxy II. Right?

El Paso Locomotive FC
Current Playoff Odds:
74 percent
Outlook: Locomotive FC looks in really good shape right now, and I’m a fan of the way they go about the game under Head Coach Mark Lowry. The only concern is that their attack has run a bit hot and cold at times, but the cushion they’ve built on both the Switchbacks and the Monarchs should be enough to see them through to the postseason with some positive home results down the stretch.

Louisville City FC
Current Playoff Odds:
70 percent
Outlook: The good news for LouCity fans is this has typically been the time of year when their club has found a way to shift into a new gear. With an undefeated run through August so far, that’s proven to be the case. But even after Wednesday night’s victory against Indy Eleven, it’s no time to take the foot off the gas pedal now given there are four consecutive games with Saint Louis FC and Indy up next.

Austin Bold FC
Current Playoff Odds:
65 percent
Outlook: You’re right in thinking that Austin has a solid squad, a two-point lead on FC Tulsa and a good run of form going. But after Wednesday night’s collapse in Colorado Springs don’t these odds look a little bit high to you? The twin-bill against FC Tulsa at Bold Stadium (Sept. 5 & Sept. 8) is probably going to determine which team joins San Antonio in the playoffs, and I’m not sure I’m prepared to make a call on how that’s going to go with much confidence.

Time to Make a Move (30% to 59%)


FC Tulsa is in third place in Group D, but still has opportunity to find its way into the postseason for the first time since the 2017 season with a strong second half of the campaign. | Photo courtesy Darren Abate / San Antonio FC

Charlotte Independence
Current Playoff Odds:
58 percent
Outlook: We had an idea that the Independence’s playoff chances were going to come down to how it fared against in-state rival North Carolina FC. Well, we got our first look at that last night, and it went exactly as the Independence would have written it up. Find more performances like that and Charlotte is going to be postseason bound for the first time since 2017 at the end of the regular season.

North Carolina FC
Current Playoff Odds:
40 percent
Outlook: If we’re being realistic, North Carolina might be facing a serious hill to climb if it was in any other group. But Wednesday night’s result against the Independence might have cast some more doubt as to whether this side is capable of coming through when it needs to. Three consecutive games without a goal in particularly troubling for a team that has this much talent on paper, and something big is going to have to happen to get things turned around.

Saint Louis FC
Current Playoff Odds:
37 percent
Outlook: The odds are the odds, and STLFC has done remarkably well to pull out victories against both Indy Eleven and Louisville City FC so far this season. But in a situation where all you’ve got to play for is this season, you can throw the odds out of the window because this squad has got absolutely nothing to lose given the club’s fate at the end of the campaign.

FC Tulsa
Current Playoff Odds:
34 percent
Outlook: Remember how we said earlier that Austin Bold FC’s odds felt a bit high? Well, flip that around here. FC Tulsa’s place in the algorithm is partly a holdover from the club’s struggles in the past, but it’s more than held its own against all opposition it has faced so far. This could be much closer to a coin-flip than the current odds say.

It’s Now or Never (0% to 29%)


Miami FC's slow start to the season has allowed both the Tampa Bay Rowdies and Charleston Battery build up a big lead in the standings, but there is quality here to make a second-half run if things fall right. | Photo courtesy Orovio Photography / Miami F

Real Monarchs SLC
Current Playoff Odds:
19 percent
Outlook: Well, this is not what we thought we’d be looking at when the season began, is it? The double defeat to New Mexico United last week at home was a massive blow to the Monarchs’ title defense hopes, and that means the playoff kick has to start on Saturday against second-place El Paso Locomotive FC. Defeat there, and the Monarchs could be looking at becoming the first Championship Final winner to miss the playoffs the following season.

LA Galaxy II
Current Playoff Odds:
18 percent
Outlook: Here’s the thing; I like LA Galaxy II games. I think they can be very entertaining to watch at their best and can give the top teams in Group B a run when given the opportunity. But I just don’t see them being consistent enough to find a way past Orange County for second place here, and neither do the odds.

Miami FC
Current Playoff Odds:
14 percent
Outlook: Miami’s slow start to the season put it into a pretty deep hole when it comes to catching the Charleston Battery for second place in the standings, and Wednesday night’s loss to the Battery only made their predicament harder. Add in that the majority of the remaining games on the schedule are going to be against Charleston and the Tampa Bay Rowdies and something has got to happen, fast, for Miami to be a playoff contender.

Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Current Playoff Odds:
8 percent
Outlook: This number could be higher if not for the narrow margins that the Switchbacks have found themselves on the wrong side of so far this season. You’ve got to admire the club’s spirit – Wednesday’s 4-4 draw with Austin Bold FC was the first time a team had conceded the first four goals in a game and rallied back to earn something in league history. But finding a first win since the season resumed against New Mexico United on Saturday is going to be a must to get where the Switchbacks want to go.

Memphis 901 FC
Current Playoff Odds:
7 percent
Outlook: If you want to sum up why Memphis 901 FC is in this predicament, there’s only one stat you really need to know. In eight games this season, 901 FC has dropped 10 points from a winning position. If you’re a glass-half-full type, it shows the team clearly has the talent to succeed, but Memphis can’t keep squandering the advantages it has earned in half of its games. The good news is it still feels like second place in Group G is wide open, which means these odds are maybe a bit low, but making leads stick against North Carolina FC and the Charlotte Independence is the way the playoffs happen from here.

New York Red Bulls II
Current Playoff Odds:
7 percent
Outlook: The big question this season was whether the new faces would be able to provide the continuity that previous iterations of the Red Bulls II have. The answer so far has been a resounding no, and that means New York’s playoff streak is almost certainly coming to an end barring a remarkable turnaround and a second-half collapse by either Hartford Athletic or Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, both of which seem unlikely.

Las Vegas Lights FC
Current Playoff Odds:
3 percent
Outlook: It ain’t over ‘til it’s over, right? And in the past two results Las Vegas has shown a certain never-say-die about them. I’m not sure it’s going to be enough to make up the six-point gap to Orange County in the next nine games, but three percent seems to be selling things a little bit short…

San Diego Loyal SC
Current Playoff Odds:
2 percent
Outlook: … and the same thinking applies here as for Vegas. SD Loyal has hit a rough patch, certainly, but Orange County just showed it’s not infallible just as Head Coach Landon Donovan’s side gets ready to visit Championship Soccer Stadium on Saturday. With a chance at revenge for its recent defeat at Torero Stadium and to pull even on points with the second-place side, it’s one of the big games this weekend. Watch this space, closely.

Loudoun United FC
Current Playoff Odds:
2 percent
Outlook: If only Loudoun could have held onto victory against Hartford Athletic on Sunday night. Then it might have felt like it had a slim chance at finding a path to the playoffs. United didn’t, and as such its playoff chances are just too far of a bridge to cross.

Tacoma Defiance
Current Playoff Odds:
2 percent
Outlook: Boy, that three-game undefeated streak to start the season resumption was fun, wasn’t it? Unfortunately the three-game losing streak that has followed means it’s an 11-point gap to make up in eight games, which is a long-shot at the best of times, let alone when you’re chasing two of the best teams in the league.

OKC Energy FC
Current Playoff Odds:
1 percent
Outlook: It’s not quite come together for Energy FC in Head Coach John Pascarella’s first season, and that means likely another year without the postseason. OKC can still have a say in which team does advance, though, and its remaining contests with FC Tulsa should both be must-sees.

Philadelphia Union II
Current Playoff Odds:
1 percent
Outlook: The Union II grabbed a nice victory against the Red Bulls II and will have plenty of chances to put its talented youngsters on display over the rest of the season. Playoff chances, though? No, just no.

Sporting Kansas City II
Current Playoff Odds: <1 percent
Outlook: I know how strong the clubs sitting above SKC II are, but I can’t shake this idea that Head Coach Paulo Nagamura’s side is going to have a serious impact on the playoff race. Does it mean Sporting’s going to the playoffs? Probably not, but I wouldn’t have their odds quite this low.

Portland Timbers 2
Current Playoff Odds:
<1 percent
Outlook: There’s only one thing for T2 to accomplish in the remainder of its season. Find a way to beat Tacoma Defiance in one of their final three meetings. If they can get two of three, all the better.

Atlanta United 2
Current Playoff Odds:
<1 percent
Outlook: You saw that statistic about points dropped I mentioned with Memphis 901 FC? Well, Atlanta’s the only team that’s dropped more points, giving away 12 points in its 11 games this season. If it holds onto more leads, it could have a playoff chance. As it is, it doesn’t.

Rio Grande Valley FC
Current Playoff Odds:
<1 percent
Outlook: The Toros have shown flashes of what they’re capable of this season, but it’s not been enough against a group with three quality teams at the top.

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