After a record-setting campain last season, Phoenix Rising FC is fivethirtyeight.com's preseason favorite to lift the trophy at the 2020 USL Championship Final. | Photo courtesy Phoenix Rising FC
There should be no surprise as to which side fivethirtyeight.com has installed as favorite to claim victory in the 2020 USL Championship Final.
Returning most of the key players from a record-setting season, Phoenix Rising FC sits head-and-shoulders above the field as a 21 percent chance to be celebrating in November. Phoenix’s 38.7 overall rating places it at No. 331 in the world, above a group of sides from Major League Soccer including Minnesota United FC, Columbus Crew SC and Sporting Kansas City.
As for the side rated most likely to face Phoenix from the Eastern Conference? Well, that might raise some eyebrows.
Newcomer The Miami FC rates a 19 percent chance to reach the USL Championship Final according to the analytics-based predictive website, giving it a three-percent edge on Florida rival the Tampa Bay Rowdies and Indy Eleven as the preseason gets underway.
As for Louisville City FC, which will be looking to reach its fourth consecutive USL Championship Final and become the first team to lift the trophy three times? It’s sitting at 12 percent despite returning much of the roster that continued the side’s success in 2019.
Other notable data from the initial 2020 season ratings includes good news for San Antonio FC and Saint Louis FC fans, with both clubs predicted for bounce-back campaigns after missing the postseason last year. SAFC is rated an 83 percent chance to reach the postseason – good for third-best in the Western Conference behind Phoenix and Orange County SC – while STLFC is rated a 75 percent chance to see playoff action for the second time in its history, putting it seventh-best in the East.
Meanwhile, the Championship’s other newcomer, San Diego Loyal SC, comes in at a 55 percent chance to reach the postseason in its inaugural season with a projected total of 46 points. SD Loyal fans should be able to take heart from last year’s projections, which placed then-expansion side New Mexico United outside the playoff picture, only for NMU to reach the postseason at its first time of asking.
As for teams that are going to have to prove it on the field, FC Tulsa’s offseason overhaul hasn’t quite moved the needle for the computers, which gives Head Coach Michael Nsien’s side a 24 percent chance at the postseason, while both Hartford Athletic (36 percent) and Las Vegas Lights FC (22 percent) are also facing an uphill climb according to the projections.
Pos. | Team | SPI Rating | Points | Goal Diff. | Playoff Odds |
1. | Phoenix Rising FC | 38.7 | 70 | +39 | 98% |
2. | Orange County SC | 27.7 | 58 | +18 | 87% |
3. | San Antonio FC | 27.4 | 56 | +16 | 83% |
4. | Sacramento Republic FC | 24.1 | 54 | +12 | 79% |
5. | Reno 1868 FC | 23.6 | 53 | +9 | 75% |
6. | Austin Bold FC | 23.0 | 53 | +10 |
75% |
7. | Real Monarchs SLC | 22.5 | 51 | +7 | 70% |
8. | El Paso Locomotive FC | 17.9 | 48 | +2 | 61% |
9. | Portland Timbers 2 | 20.3 | 47 | +0 | 59% |
10. | OKC Energy FC | 18.6 | 47 | +0 | 58% |
11. | New Mexico United | 18.3 | 46 | -1 | 55% |
12. | San Diego Loyal SC | 17.6 | 46 | -1 | 55% |
13. | LA Galaxy II | 13.3 | 39 | -14 | 32% |
14. | Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC | 11.7 | 38 | -15 | 28% |
15. | FC Tulsa | 11.5 | 36 | -18 | 24% |
16. | Las Vegas Lights FC | 10.6 | 35 | -19 | 22% |
17. | Tacoma Defiance | 10.8 | 34 | -22 | 19% |
18. | Rio Grande Valley FC | 9.2 | 33 | -22 | 18% |
Pos. | Team | SPI Rating | Points | Goal Diff. | Playoff Odds |
1. | Miami FC | 29.6 | 63 | +27 | 95% |
2. | Indy Eleven | 26.4 | 61 | +23 | 93% |
3. | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 27.6 | 61 | +23 | 93% |
4. | Louisville City FC | 26.1 | 58 | +19 | 89% |
5. | Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC | 22.8 | 57 | +17 | 88% |
6. | North Carolina FC | 21.4 | 54 | +11 | 80% |
7. | Saint Louis FC | 19.2 | 52 | +8 | 75% |
8. | Charlotte Independence | 16.3 | 47 | +0 | 62% |
9. | Birmingham Legion FC | 15.4 | 46 | +0 | 61% |
10. | Charleston Battery | 15.3 | 46 | -1 | 59% |
11. | Memphis 901 FC | 13.3 | 43 | -6 | 49% |
12. | New York Red Bulls II | 13.1 | 41 | -10 | 43% |
13. | Hartford Athletic | 11.8 | 39 | -14 | 36% |
14. | Loudoun United FC | 11.8 | 38 | -15 | 33% |
15. | Atlanta United 2 | 8.0 | 32 | -25 | 18% |
16. | Sporting Kansas City II | 7.4 | 31 | -28 | 14% |
17. | Philadelphia Union II | 7.2 | 30 | -30 | 12% |
Tag(s): News Features Preseason News San Antonio FC CO Spring Switchbacks LA Galaxy II OKC Energy FC Orange County SC Phoenix Rising FC Portland Timbers 2 Real Monarchs SLC Reno 1868 FC Rio Grande Valley FC Sacramento Republic FC FC Tulsa Philadelphia Union II Charleston Battery Charlotte Independence Louisville City FC New York Red Bulls II Pittsburgh Riverhounds Saint Louis FC Tampa Bay Rowdies Las Vegas Lights FC Birmingham Legion FC Austin Bold FC Atlanta United 2 North Carolina FC Indy Eleven Memphis 901 FC El Paso Locomotive FC New Mexico United Loudoun United FC Hartford Athletic Tacoma Defiance San Diego Loyal SC Sporting KC II Miami FC